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dc.contributor.authorÜlengin, F-
dc.contributor.authorÖzaydin, O-
dc.contributor.authorÜlengin, B-
dc.contributor.authorKopp, A-
dc.contributor.authorÖnsel, S-
dc.contributor.authorKabak, O-
dc.contributor.authorAktas, E-
dc.identifier.citationTransport Policy, 29: 227 - 235, Sept 2013en_US
dc.descriptionThis is the post-print version of the article which has been published and is available at the link below.en_US
dc.description.abstractIn this research, an integrated gravity-based model was built, and a scenario analysis was conducted to project the demand levels for routes related to the highway projects suggested in TINA-Turkey. The gravity-based model was used to perform a disaggregated analysis to estimate the demand levels that will occur on the routes which are planned to be improved in specific regions of Turkey from now until 2020. During the scenario development phase for these gravity-based models, the growth rate of Turkey's GDP, as estimated by the World Bank from now until 2017, was used as the baseline scenario. Besides, it is assumed that the gross value added (GVA) of the origin and destination regions of the selected routes will show a pattern similar to GDP growth rates. Based on the estimated GDP values, and the projected GVA growth rates, the demand for each selected route was projected and found that the demand level for some of these road projects is expected to be very low, and hence additional measures would be needed to make these investments worthwhile.en_US
dc.subjectGravity-based modelen_US
dc.subjectScenario analysisen_US
dc.subjectTransport demand forecasten_US
dc.titleAre road transportation investments in line with demand projections? A gravity-based analysis for Turkeyen_US
pubs.organisational-data/Brunel/Brunel Active Staff-
pubs.organisational-data/Brunel/Brunel Active Staff/Brunel Business School-
pubs.organisational-data/Brunel/Brunel Active Staff/Brunel Business School/Business-
Appears in Collections:Business and Management
Brunel Business School Research Papers

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