Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://buratest.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/11565
Title: How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries
Authors: Chen, Q
Costantini, M
Deschamps, B
Keywords: Professional forecasts;Forecast efficiency;Forecast bias;Asia
Issue Date: 2016
Publisher: Elsevier
Citation: International journal of forecasting, 32(1): 154–167, (2016)
Abstract: This paper assesses the performances of professional GDP growth and inflation forecasts for ten Asian economies for the period 1995–2012. We evaluate the accuracy of the forecasts, and test for unbiasedness and efficiency. Our results show that (i) forecast errors are large for most of the countries, but there are big differences between countries; (ii) forecasts improve slowly as the forecast horizon shortens, which helps to explain the magnitudes of the forecast errors; (iii) GDP growth forecasts underreact to economic news but inflation forecasts are mostly efficient; (iv) the sizes of forecast biases vary widely between countries, with a tendency for inflation to be overestimated; and (v) forecasts have value in predicting the direction of change.
URI: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207015000886
http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/11565
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.05.004
ISSN: 0169-2070
Appears in Collections:Dept of Economics and Finance Research Papers

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
Fulltext.pdf926.82 kBAdobe PDFView/Open


Items in BURA are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.